Diplomacy of the 21st Century: A New World Order is Being Forged in Ukraine

A NEW WORLD ORDER IS BEING FORGED IN UKRAINE

Russian aggression against Ukraine has fundamentally altered the global security architecture. The world order has been completely dismantled. The Yalta-Potsdam system and international law established after World War II lie in ruins. Decades of relatively peaceful coexistence among countries and nations belong to the past. Moscow’s brutal occupation of a sovereign nation’s territory has clearly demonstrated that, instead of the rule of law prevailing in the world, the law of force has taken hold. An era of wars and conflicts has begun. Those who still believe that everything will remain as it was must shed their illusions. The world will never be the same again.

Włodzimierz Iszczuk

Editor-in-Chief of Jagiellonia.org and the magazine Głos Polonii

Generations of Europeans born after World War II have grown accustomed to the peace and stability that nuclear deterrence provided in recent decades. Putin has destroyed this stability. A period of great power rivalry, proxy wars, and global upheavals has commenced. Nations and countries of the free world must prepare to fight for their survival. However, the situation faced by the contemporary world, aside from the threat of nuclear apocalypse, is not unique. The history of diplomacy contains numerous examples of the collapse of world order on the eve of great European and global wars, each of which resulted in the forging of a new international order.

THE HISTORY OF DIPLOMACY – WORLD ORDER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AGES

The Westphalian System. In 1648, after the Thirty Years’ War, which involved all European powers, a multilateral peace treaty known as the Peace of Westphalia was concluded. It was one of the most significant international treaties in the history of modern Europe. For the first time, it introduced territorial and sovereign states as the sole, almost exclusive subjects of law and international relations, becoming the foundation of a new European order for many centuries. More than a hundred years later, the characteristics of the modern state were supplemented by the French Revolution, which sealed the idea of national identity as the fundamental glue of statehood.

The Vienna System. After Napoleon’s defeat in 1815, the Congress of Vienna was held to establish peace and a new order in Europe, as well as to restore the political state that existed before the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars (the monarchist system). In Vienna, the foundations of international policy were established, based on two basic principles: legitimism (the power of monarchs is inviolable) and the balance of power (no power in Europe should gain an advantage over others). However, this system did not prevent the outbreak of further wars. In 1914, World War I began.

The Versailles System. Following the end of World War I, a peace conference was held in Paris from January 18, 1919, to January 21, 1920, during which the Treaty of Versailles was concluded. This treaty established the League of Nations—an organization consisting of 32 states—aimed at ensuring security in Europe and preventing the outbreak of another global conflict in the future. In vain. Nineteen years later, World War II broke out.

The Yalta System. After World War II, the Yalta Conference in February 1945 confirmed the division of Europe into two spheres of influence—Western and Soviet—established at the Tehran Conference (November 28 to December 1, 1943). The emergence of two opposing blocs—the democratic West led by the USA and the communist East, namely the USSR and its satellite states—also contributed to the creation of two opposing military alliances: NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Although the idea of establishing a world organization (one of the decisions made at the Tehran Conference) to ensure peace and international security and promote cooperation among nations was conceived during the war—resulting in the establishment of the United Nations—the tensions between the powers led to the Cold War (1947-1991). During the rivalry between the USSR and the USA, both military blocs were entangled in numerous global conflicts, often regarded as proxy wars, such as the Korean War (1950-1953), the Vietnam War (1955-1975), and the Afghanistan War (1979-1989).

Korea, divided as a result of war into North Korea and South Korea, serves as an excellent example of the statehood models proposed by Russia and the United States. The impoverished, despotic, and hungry North (the russkij mir, whose essence is captured in the words of Alexander Dugin, a leading Russian strategist dubbed the ideologue of Eurasianism: “Where we are, there is the center of hell”) versus the flourishing, free, and progressive South (the free world).

On March 8, 1983, US President Ronald Reagan delivered his famous speech at the National Evangelical Assembly in Orlando, Florida, where he called the Soviet Union an “evil empire,” totalitarian and atheist. Eight years later, Moscow lost the Cold War. In 1991, the totalitarian Soviet Union collapsed like a house of cards.

THE WORLD AFTER THE FALL OF THE EVIL EMPIRE

After the collapse of the USSR, the bipolar world ceased to exist. The rivalry between two political systems came to an end. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR, the democratic West and the nations liberated from totalitarian Moscow’s yoke fell into euphoria. The world entered a new era in which the United States—a superpower—held a dominant position in international economic and political relations. People believed that Pax Americana—a unipolar world led by the USA—would bring peace, freedom, and democracy to the globe. They naively hoped that Russia would join the community of free nations. American philosopher of Japanese descent Francis Fukuyama even wrote a book entitled „The End of History,” in which he foretold the victory of liberal democracy, the shift from military factors to economic ones, and painted a picture of a harmonious global society.

However, at that moment, the West made a fatal mistake—it failed to condemn the criminal, inhumane practices of Soviet totalitarianism, did not work to eliminate the remnants of the imperial worldview in Moscow, and did not insist on a complete reform of Russia, which was to be cleansed of the influences of former Soviet KGB officers. Moreover, the West allowed Russia opportunities for development, trade, and integration into the elite club of countries that had the right to decide the fate of the world. The Western policy of concessions and „not provoking” emboldened Russia, instilling in the Kremlin’s elites the belief in their impunity for crimes committed against humanity. This policy awakened the demons of Russia’s imperial and totalitarian past.

MOSCOW’S ATTEMPT AT REVENGE

After losing the Cold War, Russia was forced to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. However, this did not mean that it was ready to accept defeat. The clan of chekists (as the officers of the Federal Security Service, FSB, are called)—the legal successors of the Soviet KGB—quickly discredited the Russian pro-Western reformers and seized power in the country. The West was too naive to believe in the good intentions of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. Putin was insincere when he professed his loyalty to the values of the free world. In reality, the former KGB colonel despised democracy. From the very first days of his presidency, he obsessively prepared to resurrect an authoritarian evil empire.

Participation in the global economy provided Russia with the opportunity to undermine Europe from within. Utilizing the West’s openness, Gazprom bribed a whole group of leading experts, entrepreneurs, and European politicians. The Kremlin made every effort to render Europe toothless, passive, and sluggish. This strategy proved effective.

For 25 years, Russian imperialists have been preparing to regain the Soviet sphere of influence in Europe and seek revenge against the hated West. Moscow is waging a secret hybrid war against its neighbors. Conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia, North Ossetia, and Donbas are the result of a creeping hybrid war. Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine have already fallen victim to Russian aggression.

The Russian revanchists did not even hide their plans. In 2003, during the announcement of a new military doctrine, Putin stated: “Russia has lost so much over the last decade that we will give nothing back. We will take.” The threat of war loomed over the Baltic states and Poland. However, a significant obstacle stands in the way of the plans of the Russian chekist clan.

WITHOUT UKRAINE, THERE WILL BE NO IMPERIAL RUSSIA

“Ukraine, a new, important field on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical fulcrum because the very existence of an independent Ukrainian state helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire,” wrote Zbigniew Brzezinski, the renowned strategist of Polish descent and former U.S. National Security Advisor, in his book „The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.”

After the collapse of the USSR, the legal successors of the Soviet KGB were confident that with the help of their agents, they could draw Ukraine into Moscow’s orbit. These illusions were first dispelled during the Orange Revolution when, in 2004, Ukrainians defended their choice and did not allow Moscow’s agents to install their man in the presidency of Ukraine. A year later, Putin stated that „the collapse of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

In May 2006, he unequivocally responded to the words of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, spoken at a forum of Baltic-Black Sea countries in Vilnius. Criticizing Russia’s policy of pressure on the countries of the former Soviet Union that had chosen the path of democracy, Vice President Cheney said that “there is no justification for the use of natural resources, such as gas or oil, as instruments of pressure or even blackmail, to manipulate the transportation of these resources or attempt to monopolize their supply,” promising that to defend democracy in these countries, the United States would do everything possible to curb Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. In response, Putin, obsessed with the idea of imperialism, remarked that “it is still too early to talk about the end of the arms race.” A year later, in February 2007, he dropped the mask of a democrat and revealed his true face: he delivered a speech in Munich, accusing the United States of creating a unipolar world and announcing a return to imperial politics.

“Ukraine is not even a state! What is Ukraine? Part of its territory is Eastern Europe, and the rest, a large part, was given to it by us,” said the President of the Russian Federation, addressing U.S. President George W. Bush at the NATO-Russia summit in April 2008. When speaking about Ukraine, Putin lost his emotional composure and appeared very agitated and irritated, as if he had lost his sanity. This fact suggests that he perceived Ukraine as the main obstacle to realizing his plan to resurrect an aggressive Eurasian empire.

During the presidential elections in 2010, Putin succeeded in installing his puppet Viktor Yanukovych as the President of Ukraine, but in the spring of 2014, Ukrainians once again overthrew the government of Russian agents and puppets. The Kremlin’s operation to seize a large state in Eastern Europe failed. Putin lost Ukraine. This was the greatest defeat of the Russian special services after the Orange Revolution.

On February 20, 2014, the irritated Russian president decided to launch direct military aggression against Ukraine—invading Ukrainian Crimea and Donbas—and eight years later, on February 22, 2022, he unleashed a large-scale war in Europe.

PUTIN’S ULTIMATUM TO THE WEST

This is not a war against Ukraine. In reality, the dictator of the Kremlin is waging it against the entire West. If it were not for the Revolution of Dignity and the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians, Putin would have mobilized them to wage war against the West, and „little green men” would soon have appeared on the streets of Polish and Baltic cities.

The ultimatum regarding the so-called security guarantees—published on December 17, 2021, by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs at Putin’s order—contains a brazen demand for the withdrawal of NATO troops from the eastern flank of the Alliance to the borders of 1997. The master of the Kremlin is obsessively trying to rebuild the Soviet sphere of influence in Europe. Therefore, he questions the eastward expansion of NATO and wants the West to abandon the countries of Central and Eastern Europe to Russia’s mercy. Fortunately, Ukraine is thwarting these insane plans. Without conquering Ukraine, the Kremlin dictator cannot destabilize Central and Eastern Europe and restore the Russian empire.

According to secret FSB documents revealed by the British newspaper „The Sun,” when starting the war in Ukraine, Putin was convinced that it would end with a swift victory for his troops and the collapse of NATO. And had it not been for the Ukrainians’ fierce fight for freedom and independence, he would have long ago written an article titled “Kurica nie ptica, Polsza nie zagranica. On Slavic Unity of Russians and the Residents of the Russian Land on the Vistula” with all the ensuing consequences.

Putin is obsessed with Ukraine because he realizes that without it, he cannot destabilize Central and Eastern Europe and restore the empire. Therefore, with full responsibility and without the slightest exaggeration, it can be stated that the fate of Europe and all of Western civilization is currently being decided in Ukraine.

AXIS OF EVIL AND THE NEW CHINESE GREAT WORLD

Unfortunately, Putin is not alone in his desire to destroy the international order established after the collapse of the USSR. The Chinese dragon, which for centuries has existed in a self-sufficient state of isolationism, has awakened from a millennium-long hibernation. Pax Americana has long irritated the elites of the People’s Republic of China. When the current leader of China, Xi Jinping, came to power, an ambitious plan for the revival of the Chinese nation was adopted in Beijing, which is to be implemented by 2049. That year (October 1) will mark the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A very important element of this strategy is the project for the renewal of the Silk Road, „One Belt and One Road.” In this way, China aims to rid itself of the trauma of humiliation by Western countries experienced over the past century.

In 1971, Western diplomacy succeeded in breaking the alliance between communist Beijing and communist Moscow. The normalization of relations and trade with the civilized world gave China the chance to build a powerful economy. However, this maneuver ultimately enabled Beijing to challenge the United States and the entire West.

Like Putin, Xi Jinping exhibits manic ambitions and an unrestrained desire to implement his strategy. The Red Emperor of China has cemented his power, abandoned the reforms of Deng Xiaoping (the leader of the People’s Republic of China from 1978 to 1989), and directed the state’s strategy toward sharp confrontation with the USA and the West. Moreover, he has set himself the goal of annexing pro-Western, democratic Taiwan to the totalitarian, communist PRC. If he seeks to achieve this by force, a potential conflict could escalate into a general war in the Pacific involving the USA.

For the first time in history, China has begun to actively expand its influence across the globe. By turning to the countries of the global South (Africa, Asia, and South America), it seeks to impose its own—an alternative to the West—despotic Eastern model of governance, economy, and civilization. This model fits well with authoritarian and totalitarian regimes as well as dictatorships worldwide. That is why the countries of the axis of evil (Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Belarus), which are in a phase of acute confrontation with the West and the United States, agree to become humble vassals of China.

Furthermore, the People’s Republic of China is successfully spreading its influence within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which recently welcomed Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates as new members. Both organizations challenge the G7 countries, the EU, and the USA. The Primakov Doctrine (Prime Minister of the Russian Federation from 1998 to 1999), which envisions a multipolar world with several global centers of power, if implemented, could once again transform into a bipolar international order where China replaces the USSR that fell 30 years ago. The global cold war is returning, and there is a risk that it may turn into a series of new proxy wars or a great war on a global scale.

The confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes, which began in Ukraine in 2014, could occur anywhere else on the globe—especially if the West continues to hesitate in arming Ukraine and tries to restrain Kyiv, which wants and can completely defeat Moscow on the battlefield.

WHAT CAN THE WEST OFFER CHINA?

China’s stance on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has shown that Beijing is ready to secretly use Moscow as a battering ram against the countries of the Euro-Atlantic civilization. The Russo-Ukrainian war is beneficial for China as it hinders the expansion of the United States’ sphere of influence, the main competitor of the People’s Republic of China in the fight for global leadership.

However, the USA and the West possess all the necessary tools to effectively influence Beijing’s policy, whose economy is entirely dependent on the EU and the United States, China’s main trading partners. Especially since the current Chinese economy and demographics are far from their prime, and the dynamics of change promise even greater problems ahead. Economic sanctions and the blocking of the revived Silk Road at the EU border could completely stifle the development of the People’s Republic of China. Therefore, Beijing should be interested in peaceful, fair, and rational competition on the world stage. The USA, the EU, and the G7 countries have sufficient means to constructively influence China. It is time to fully employ them.

China should be vitally interested in a just resolution to the war in Ukraine. Beijing could influence Moscow to completely withdraw all its troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbas, and also agree to fulfill all points of the Ukrainian peace formula.

THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD IS DECIDED IN UKRAINE

Moscow’s unyielding stance on the preconditions for peace negotiations clearly demonstrates that there is no diplomatic solution that could end Russia’s aggression against Europe. The war will end on the battlefield.

A Ukrainian defeat would deal a devastating blow to the entire Euro-Atlantic community, potentially leading to the collapse of NATO and the entire Western bloc. The realization of such a scenario would inevitably lead to Russian aggression against Europe and the withdrawal of the United States from the world stage. The West cannot allow such a development under any circumstances.

The West has the capability to provide Ukraine with all kinds of the most modern weapons, ammunition, and military equipment in the required dimensions, so that Kyiv can quickly and effectively crush the army of the aggressor country and establish a just peace based on the best principles of international law.

If Putin is not severely punished for the heinous crimes against humanity committed in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, other dictators will see such impunity as an encouragement to use brutal violence. In this case, conflicts may arise in various parts of the world, potentially leading to the outbreak of World War III.

Ukraine must win. Putin’s regime must suffer a humiliating and crushing defeat. His failure should serve as an example to all dictators and war criminals who dream of destroying the existing international order based on respect for human rights and state sovereignty. When the Kremlin loses, the threat of a global war can be neutralized for many years.

Thus, the ongoing war in Ukraine is, without the slightest exaggeration, a war for the future of humanity. It is a war between freedom and slavery, democracy and despotism, truth and lies, between light and darkness. China is closely monitoring this war. The fate of the world is being decided today in Ukraine.

Włodzimierz Iszczuk

POLECAMY PAŃSTWA UWADZE NAJNOWSZY NUMER NASZEGO CZASOPISMA

WSZYSTKIE ARTYKUŁY W NAJNOWSZYM NUMERZE PRZECZYTASZ TUTAJ>>>

Obejrzyj antypolskie wystąpienie Putina!
PUTIN GROZI POLAKOM!
Podobnej retoryki używał przed inwazją na Ukrainę