The unjust, illegal, and unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine has dealt a devastating blow to the European and global security architecture. It also threatens to destroy the international rules-based order. Any compromise or concessions to the aggressor could ultimately dismantle the global system built on respect for human rights, the sovereignty of independent states, and nations.
Meanwhile, members of the incoming administration of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump have put forward three versions of a “peace plan” aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine. The authors of these proposals include Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, former Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, and Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, General Keith Kellogg.
What exactly are the closest associates of the newly elected U.S. president proposing?
FREEZING THE CONFLICT ALONG THE CURRENT FRONT LINE
Each of these plans envisions freezing the conflict along the current front line at the moment of a potential agreement and temporarily recognizing Russia’s control over the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. This approach undermines one of the fundamental principles of international law — the inviolability of state borders. Such a decision sends a message to all potential aggressors worldwide that a brutal and bloody attack on a sovereign nation can be rewarded with territorial gains. Countries like China, Iran, and North Korea might see Russia’s strategy as an effective tool for pursuing their own imperial ambitions, potentially inspiring similar actions.
EXCLUDING UKRAINE FROM NATO
J.D. Vance and Richard Grenell suggest entirely excluding Ukraine from the NATO accession process, while Keith Kellogg proposes delaying Kyiv’s integration into the Alliance by 10 or even 20 years. If such a decision were implemented, it would be perceived globally as a concession to Russia’s ultimatum, which demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO. Such a move would validate Russia’s narrative of having a “veto power” over NATO enlargement.
The consequences would be far-reaching. China, Iran, North Korea, and other authoritarian leaders could interpret this as a sign of Western weakness, inspiring them to push their own demands in similar ways. As a result, the prestige of the United States and NATO would be severely undermined, casting doubt on their ability to defend the principles of the free world.
LACK OF SECURITY GUARANTEES
Vance and Grenell’s plan lacks clarity regarding whether the United States would provide strong support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. It does not specify the format, scope, or even certainty of such support.
Kellogg’s plan includes supplying Ukraine with more weapons but only on the condition that Kyiv agrees to peace talks. At the same time, the new U.S. president would warn Russia that if Moscow refuses to negotiate, aid to Ukraine would be increased. According to this plan, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the United States, potentially including expanded arms deliveries after a peace agreement is reached. However, it is unclear whether these guarantees would resemble the Budapest Memorandum, which — as history has shown — proved ineffective. The only real security guarantee for Ukraine remains Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
THE COLLAPSE OF THE GLOBAL JUSTICE SYSTEM
None of the proposed peace plans for Ukraine include mechanisms to deliver justice or harshly punish war criminals responsible for the aggression, the genocide of the Ukrainian nation, and systematic war crimes in the temporarily occupied territories. The absence of such measures sends a dangerous signal to dictators worldwide: aggressive wars, genocide, rape, torture, and mass murder of civilians can not only go unpunished but even lead to rewards in the form of territorial gains.
Thus, we enter a “brave new world” where violence and crime become acceptable tools of international politics.
Implementing these plans would be perceived globally as a capitulation of the United States and the West to a deranged dictator, leading to catastrophic consequences. Any “peace plan” based on territorial concessions, depriving Ukraine of the right to choose international alliances that ensure its security, and allowing Russian war criminals to escape severe punishment for crimes against humanity will destroy the existing system of international law and plunge the world into chaos, wars, conflicts, and the domination of brute force over the rule of law.
THE POLICY OF APPEASEMENT TOWARD PUTIN LEADS TO GLOBAL TRAGEDY
It is important to note that there is also a risk that none of the proposed plans will be implemented because the psychopathic Kremlin leader may reject even such an imperfect and unjust “peace treaty.” In that case, the administration of the new U.S. president will be forced to develop a more realistic and fair approach to resolving the issue of Russian aggression, which poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to global security and humanity’s future. The sooner elites in Washington and Brussels recognize this reality, the less bloody the consequences will be for the world. If the collective West repeats the mistake of 1938, when it agreed to surrender Czechoslovakia to Hitler, the consequences of this fatal policy could be even more catastrophic than those of the 1930s and 1940s.
I will tirelessly repeat that Putin behaves like Hitler did before World War II. Therefore, it is worth recalling the words of Winston Churchill, who in 1938 said, after European states signed the Munich Agreement with Hitler: “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.” And he was right. Just a few months later, Hitler invaded Poland, prompting Britain to declare war on Germany, thereby starting World War II…
Today, Europe and the world face the same choice…
Włodzimierz Iszczuk
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