Which Path Will Trump Choose? Savior or Gravedigger of Pax Americana?

HOPES AND FEARS

Trump’s return to the highest office in the country has stirred mixed reactions—while the conservative factions of the West celebrate, liberal-democratic circles react with unease, even shock. Supporters of strengthening Euro-Atlantic unity are also uncertain about the future. European countries that have relied on America’s security umbrella for decades now face the question of how to adapt their defense strategies in light of potential changes in U.S. policy. The shared goals and values that have underpinned transatlantic cooperation may soon be tested.

The American society, like the entire Euro-Atlantic community, is deeply divided, creating a dangerous gap in the global power structure. Meanwhile, the so-called „axis of evil”—a coalition of authoritarian and totalitarian regimes—is consolidating its forces, challenging the dominance of free, democratic states. This clash of two opposing worldviews takes on new significance with Trump’s return to the White House.

WHAT WILL TRUMP’S STRATEGY BE?

Signals sent by Trump, his Vice President J.D. Vance, and members of his campaign team suggest that the new American administration may be willing to yield to the pressure of the coalition seeking to weaken the rules-based world order grounded in the United Nations Charter. This has alarmed many observers, especially as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea may exploit such a shift to pursue their own goals and destabilize the global balance of power.

Trump is famously unpredictable, making it difficult to predict his foreign policy, especially as Moscow, Pyongyang, and Tehran are likely to reject his diplomatic proposals to resolve crises in the Indo-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. This uncertainty raises questions about Washington’s possible responses to further escalations in these key regions.

CAN TRUMP HALT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION?

During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could swiftly resolve the Gordian knot of the Russia-Ukraine war. His attempts to achieve a just peace in Ukraine will serve as both a test of his ability to accomplish ambitious foreign policy goals and a major challenge. These actions could reveal how effectively Trump can manage international conflicts.

As for Trump’s policy toward Putin’s aggression in Eastern Europe, especially regarding the war in Ukraine, his inner circle has made projections of a radically different nature. J.D. Vance has repeatedly expressed views that could be interpreted as a U.S. concession to the demands set forth by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Washington on December 17, 2021, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Mike Pompeo and Boris Johnson predict that Trump’s strategy toward the aggressor state will be firm and unyielding. This diversity of opinions highlights profound uncertainty regarding the direction of U.S. policy toward Russia.

THE “PEACE PLAN” OF J.D. VANCE

In September, the U.S. Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance presented a so-called “peace plan” on television, proposing a „demilitarized zone” along the current front line between Russia and Ukraine. According to Vance’s plan, Ukraine would have to abandon its aspirations for NATO membership, which could have far-reaching consequences for regional security. Many observers believe that implementing this plan would be the largest unilateral betrayal of an ally since the Munich Agreement of 1938, when Britain and France left Czechoslovakia to the mercy of Nazi Germany. In contrast, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in his column in the Daily Mail after meeting with the Republican presidential candidate, declared that Donald Trump “has the strength” to end the Russia-Ukraine war on terms favorable to Kyiv.

JOHNSON AND POMPEO’S PROPOSALS

Johnson stressed that he is convinced that “Trump understands the reality: Ukraine’s defeat would be a huge defeat for America.” A victory for Putin would not only mean the subjugation of Ukraine but also the continuation of Russian aggression against neighboring states, which would be a catastrophe for Europe, America, and the entire world. As an analogy, Johnson recalls the tragic consequences of the partition of Poland in 1939, which led to the outbreak of World War II that no one was able to prevent. After Ukraine, Johnson argues, the greatest threat would fall on Georgia and the Baltic states, with increased threats to Taiwan from China and Israel from Hezbollah. In such a scenario, Americans would be forced to engage in additional conflicts; otherwise, the United States would lose any claim to global leadership.

Therefore, according to Johnson, Trump allegedly has the opportunity to end the war “on the right terms for Ukraine and the West.” The former British Prime Minister added, however, that he is not certain what exact steps Trump would take if re-elected. “But that is what he can do,” Johnson suggested. Mike Pompeo, who served as the U.S. Secretary of State under President Donald Trump from 2018 to 2021, expressed a similar opinion.

WHICH PATH WILL TRUMP CHOOSE?

Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict what Trump’s strategy will actually be, given his reputation for secrecy and unpredictability.

One thing is certain: the future world order will largely depend on resolving the problem of Russian aggression in Ukraine and managing crises in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions. These issues will determine whether the United States remains a global leader, with a decisive influence on the progress of global civilization.

The „axis of evil”—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—is attacking a weakened American lion like a pack of jackals. Considering the global situation, Trump will go down in history either as the savior or the gravedigger of the world order known as Pax Americana.

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